Visible Satellite Showing Exposed Center With Model Tracks

Tropical Storm Karen Joins The Sheared Club

Like so many this year, Tropical Storm Karen remains almost completely exposed late this morning from strong 20-30mph southwesterly wind shear. Her low-level circulation is exposed and moving more west-northwest, while what’s left to her mid-level circulation has been severely sheared off to the northeast, bringing much of the associated deep convection with it. Looking at the shear maps, the worst of the shear should continue for another 48 hours only whether she remains weak and tracks more westward. If she tracks more northwest, then she will dive into much stronger shear.

The only thing going for Karen at this time is her overall very large vortex circulation. Larger storms can handle the shear for longer, but take longer to reorganized with such a large circulation. Right now her convection is very displayed to the east and it’s easy to track the naked swirl on 1km visible satellite loops.

The Latest Computer Forecast Track Model Plot

 

The Future For Karen And Forecast Model Tracks

The latest computer forecast model tracks for Karen are spread out a little again after 3 days. The GFS and UKMET are more westward with a track, bringing a weaker system steered by the lower level easterlies, while the rest of the models tracking a stronger Karen northward into the north-central Atlantic. The more Karen remains sheared, the further west she will likely track with the lower levels steering the shallow core, while a stronger deeper Karen with a “stacked” circulation would feel the weakness in the ridge more and allow the trough to pull her more northward.

No matter what right now, Karen looks terrible and yet another victim of the persistent upper-level troughs this season over the Atlantic basin.

Tropical Depression 13 Expected To Become Lorenzo

Here are

two other systems yet dealing with shear. Tropical Depression 13 located in the southwest Gulf has been struggling the last few days with shear as the system pretty much remains stationary. TD 13 looks a little more organized this morning and convection is once again on the increase. The Depression is expected to become Tropical Storm Lorenzo later today before reaching the Mexican coastline. This very slow moving storm is expected to bring large amounts of rain to Mexico over the next 48 hours. Lorenzo to be, is not expected to become a hurricane before reaching the coast.

Florida Invest 98L - Another Developing Hybrid Storm?

The system that brought a ton of rain to Florida over the last few days is now moving offshore Florida’s east coast. A weak low pressure circulation is trying to develop just northeast of West Palm Beach, but is struggling from, yeah more shear. This once again could develop into more of a subtropical system while tracking slowly northeastward. This is yet another confusing system to follow, and the models are all over the place on development with this system, whether any now. At least Florida picked up a decent amount of rainfall totals along the east coast and Lake Okeechobee, where water levels have come up some.

I’ll continue to monitor all three area’s today, and watch as the shear that we look for when chasing on the Plains in Tornado Alley to help produce Supercells and tornadoes, tears into our tropical cyclones keeping them from becoming vertically stacked and organized.

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